Today's Mortgage Rates & Trends – September 14, 2022: Rates surge – Investopedia
Rates bolted higher across all mortgage types Tuesday, after a scheduled inflation report showed a higher rate of inflation than expected. The 30-year average is now in the mid 6% range and at its highest level since the fall of 2008.
The release Tuesday of the latest inflation report sent mortgage rates to new highs, with the 30-year average bolting a quarter percentage point higher. Now at 6.43%, the flagship average has surpassed the mid-June peak of 6.38%, which had been the highest average since 2008.
The 15-year average surged even more dramatically Tuesday, adding 35 basis points to reach 5.79%. It too has set a new 14-year high, which was previously a 5.62% reading in June.
Jumbo 30-year rates meanwhile climbed a more moderate eighth of a percentage point Tuesday. Now at 5.52%, the Jumbo 30-year average is just a point under early June's 5.53% peak.
The major refinancing averages moved similarly Tuesday, though the 30-year refi average gained a more substantial 33 basis points, as did the 15-year refi average, while the Jumbo 30-year refi average increased just an eighth of a point. The cost to refinance with a fixed-rate loan is currently zero to 39 points more expensive than new purchase loans.
After a major rate dip last summer, mortgage rates skyrocketed in the first half of 2022, with the 30-year average peaking in mid-June by an eye-popping 3.49 percentage points above its August 2021 low of 2.89%, and now again by another five basis points.
The rates you see here generally won’t compare directly with teaser rates you see advertised online, since those rates are cherry-picked as the most attractive. They may involve paying points in advance, or they may be selected based on a hypothetical borrower with an ultra-high credit score or taking a smaller-than-typical loan given the value of the home.
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The lowest mortgage rates available vary depending on the state where originations occur. Mortgage rates can be influenced by state-level variations in credit score, average mortgage loan term, and size, in addition to individual lenders' varying risk management strategies.
Mortgage rates are determined by a complex interaction of macroeconomic and industry factors, such as the level and direction of the bond market, including 10-year Treasury yields; the Federal Reserve's current monetary policy, especially as it relates to funding government-backed mortgages; and competition between lenders and across loan types. Because fluctuations can be caused by any number of these at once, it's generally difficult to attribute the change to any one factor.
Macroeconomic factors have kept the mortgage market relatively low for much of this year. In particular, the Federal Reserve has been buying billions of dollars of bonds in response to the pandemic's economic pressures, and it continues to do so. This bond-buying policy (and not the more publicized federal funds rate) is a major influencer on mortgage rates.
On May 4, the Fed announced that it will begin reducing its balance sheet on June 1. Identical sizable reductions will occur in June, July, and August and then be doubled beginning in September. This will be on top of its existing move to reduce new bond purchases by an increment every month, the so-called taper, which began in November.
The Fed's rate and policy committee, called the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), meets every six to eight weeks. Their next scheduled meeting takes place September 20–21.
The national averages cited above were calculated based on the lowest rate offered by more than 200 of the country’s top lenders, assuming a loan-to-value ratio (LTV) of 80% and an applicant with a FICO credit score in the 700–760 range. The resulting rates are representative of what customers should expect to see when receiving actual quotes from lenders based on their qualifications, which may vary from advertised teaser rates.
For our map of the best state rates, the lowest rate currently offered by a surveyed lender in that state is listed, assuming the same parameters of an 80% LTV and a credit score between 700–760.
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